Dollar Confidence — drill-down

Are global markets beginning to demand a higher risk premium for holding dollars or dollar-denominated U.S. assets?

Insufficient data0/5 channels stressed · 0/5 with data · Priority 00/5 live

Regime: Insufficient data. Only 0 of 5 channels have live data — too few to classify.

Why this changed: No channel moved more than 3 points this week.

Early warning: off — Not evaluable — the yield or dollar input has no data.

Overriding critical condition: Not met. Treasury no data, dollar no data, divergence (gold missing) no data — all three need 70+.

Treasuries

No data

Is the long end repricing for fiscal risk rather than Fed policy?

Channel basis: 30Y−2Y curve and 10Y term premium.

Long-end curve, 30Y − 2Y	+0.62 pp	Seeded
10Y real yield (TIPS)	2.05%	Seeded
10Y term premium (Treasury & Sovereign Risk)	+0.92%	Seeded
Avg auction tail (6 auc.) (Treasury & Sovereign Risk)	1.8 bp	Seeded
Indirect bidder share, 10Y/30Y	64.8%	Seeded

Dollar

No data

Is the dollar failing to benefit from higher U.S. yields?

Channel basis: Broad trade-weighted dollar, 3m (weakness scores high).

Broad trade-weighted dollar (3m)	−1.2%	Seeded
Yield–dollar divergence (3m)	+18 bp	Seeded

Gold

Override leg · no data

Is physical gold pulling away from paper markets and real yields?

Gold is the third leg of the critical override — not in this vintage, so divergence stands in.

Gold vs. real yield (3m)	+4.1 pts	Seeded
Gold, COMEX (3m)	+6.2%	Seeded
Physical settlement / lease rates LBMA data is licensed; COMEX futures stand in	—	Pending source

Funding

No data

Are offshore and domestic borrowers paying more for dollars?

Channel basis: Commercial-paper and SOFR spreads, Fed swap-line draws.

Commercial-paper funding spread	+14 bp	Seeded
SOFR − IORB spread (Banking & Liquidity)	+4 bp	Seeded
Fed liquidity swap lines	$0.3B	Seeded
Cross-currency basis (EUR, JPY) Licensed market data required; Fed swap-line draws stand in	—	Pending source

Official Sector

No data

Are foreign central banks reducing U.S. Treasury holdings?

Channel basis: Foreign official custody holdings and auction indirect-bidder share.

Foreign official custody holdings (y/y)	−0.8%	Seeded
Indirect bidder share, 10Y/30Y	64.8%	Seeded
TIC foreign official flows (monthly) Monthly, two-month lag; weekly Fed custody data covers this faster	—	Pending source

Scoring every week since 2010…

Evidence classes: Live = scored from a connected public feed in the latest ratified vintage; Seeded = published reference value, feed not in this vintage; Pending source = specified in the methodology but no data source connected yet. Senior housing is financed in dollars priced off Treasuries: when markets start demanding a premium for holding U.S. assets, long-end yields rise without the usual dollar support, pushing cap rates and debt costs up regardless of Fed policy — the fiscal/sovereign channel no single rates pillar isolates.